Abstract

Urban mobility in the context of climate change has become a challenge in cities characterized by extreme heat conditions, where high temperatures and urban heat island effects reduce pedestrian activity and increase reliance on private vehicles. This study examines the key factors influencing walkability in Dubai using a strategic foresight framework. The research begins with environmental scanning through PESTEL analyses, followed by a strategic assessment using SWOT. Systems thinking is applied through causal loop diagram. Future-oriented foresight methods, including scenario planning, wild card analysis, and backcasting, are then applied to explore potential mobility futures. The findings indicate that extreme heat remains a primary barrier to walkability, discouraging pedestrian movement despite relatively high urban density and proximity to services in several parts of the city. The analysis also reveals a clear gap between the physical presence of pedestrian infrastructure and its functional effectiveness in practice. This gap is associated with disconnected road networks, limited climate-responsive design, and the high dependence on private vehicles. Systems analysis further identifies reinforcing feedback loops that sustain car dependency, alongside balancing mechanisms such as infrastructure improvements and policy interventions that could gradually encourage shifts in mobility behavior. Scenario planning presents contrasting future pathways, ranging from a climate-resilient and pedestrian-oriented city supported by integrated infrastructure and coordinated policy action, to a vehicle-dominated urban trajectory shaped by limited intervention and worsening environmental conditions. Wild card analysis highlights unexpected uncertainties, including intensified climate extremes and emerging mobility technologies, emphasizing the importance of flexible and adaptive planning approaches. Backcasting and roadmap development outline a transition pathway from the current fragmented mobility system toward a more integrated and climate-responsive urban mobility framework. The study contributes to research on sustainable urban mobility by demonstrating how strategic foresight can support adaptive planning and climate-resilient mobility systems in extreme heat environments.

Publication Date

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Student Type

Graduate

Degree Name

Professional Studies (MS)

Department, Program, or Center

Graduate Programs & Research

Advisor

Woody Wade

Comments

This thesis has been embargoed. The full-text will be available on or around 5/12/2027.

Campus

RIT Dubai

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