Abstract

The global labor market is navigating a ”polycrisis” of technological disruption and macroeconomic volatility, rendering linear career trajectories obsolete. Traditional K-12 career guidance relies on industrial-era ”predict-and-place” methodologies, which fail to equip Generation Alpha for an economy defined by structural job churn. This misalignment is especially critical in Dubai, where the ambitious mandates of the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) and Education 33 (E33) require an agile, future-ready talent pipeline. This study aimed to design and validate a foresight-driven advisory framework to replace static vocational matching with continuous futures literacy. Employing the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM), the research diagnosed the structural frictions within Dubai’s K-12 ecosystem. Through a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), the study identified the ”Prestige Trap”, a reinforcing feedback loop of societal expectations driving students toward saturated traditional careers. To disrupt this trap, the study developed the 4R Framework (Reveal, Reframe, Rethink, Realize), a pedagogical intervention combining strategic and transformative foresight methodologies, including Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and Backcasting. The framework was empirically validated through a purposive, mixed-methods consultation with 33 stakeholders across four cohorts (students, parents, K-12 practitioners, and strategic experts). The findings confirmed end-user desirability and highly significant strategic macroalignment with Emiratization and D33 targets. Notably, the qualitative data revealed a critical “AI-Avoidance” paradox among Generation Alpha students, highlighting the urgent need to transition from mere technical proximity to deep foresight literacy. Finally, the study identified a Strategy-Execution divide, as school practitioners reported structural time and training barriers to implementation. The study’s empirical validation (N = 33) revealed a 79% consensus among practitioners regarding the existence of the ’Prestige Trap’ as a primary systemic barrier to career agility. Experts highly validated the 4R Framework (Reveal, Reframe, Rethink, Realize), specifically identifying the ’Reframing’ phase as the most critical leverage point for disrupting industrial-era anticipatory assumptions. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the model’s focus on ‘Human-AI Symbiosis’ and ’Portfolio Thinking’ directly addresses the strategic requirements of the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) and the Education 33 (E33) mandate. To operationalize the framework, this study recommends the development of an Emirate-wide, AI-powered “Futures Portfolio” digital application. Ultimately, the 4R Framework is designed to serve as an operational engine to meet current regulatory requirements, driving school compliance with D33 and E33.S

Publication Date

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Student Type

Graduate

Degree Name

Professional Studies (MS)

Department, Program, or Center

Graduate Programs & Research

Advisor

Ozcan Saritas

Comments

This thesis has been embargoed. The full-text will be available on or around 5/12/2027.

Campus

RIT Dubai

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