Hao Xu


Cellular telecommunication technology is one of the hottest topics of the last two decades. The annual rate of user growth is more than 30 percent. It began with the first generation (1G) networks and bloomed with second generation (2G) of cellular technologies. New third generation cellular (3G) technologies aim at offering high-speed, superior-quality information service to mobile subscribers. [2]

The Chinese cellular market is developing with unbelievable speed. China launched its first cellular network in 1987. At the end of 2002, it was the biggest wireless market in the world, with more than 200 million subscribers. [56] Technologies used in the migration from the 2G networks to the 3G networks are referred to as 2.5 generation or 2.5G. It is no doubt that the 3G pattern selected in China will deeply affect the competition among the 3G technologies. This thesis will forecast the 3G systems to be selected for use in China.

It will begin with the 1G and 2G networks and then look into the 2.5 G and the 3G cellular telecommunication technologies in more detail. Analysis the history, culture and business conditions in China will follow. Finally, this paper will make a prediction of the principal Chinese 3G technologies that will be chosen based on analyzing concrete information. An examination of other Asia markets, such as the 3G markets in Japan, and South Korea will be included.

The conclusion of this thesis is that WCDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access), a 3G technology that is developed and supported by European telecommunication manufacturers, will take the lion's share of the Chinese 3G market, about 65% to 70%. Another technology, CDMA2000, will take more than 20% of the Chinese 3G market share. There is also a Chinese oriented 3G technology named TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access). With the Chinese government's support, it will collect the remaining 10% to 15% market share.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Cell phone systems--China--History; Cell phone systems--China--Forecasting; Cell phone systems--History; Mobile communication systems--History

Publication Date


Document Type


Student Type



Bruce Hartpence

Advisor/Committee Member

Luther Troell

Advisor/Committee Member

William Stackpole


Physical copy available from RIT's Wallace Library at TK6570.M6 X8 2003


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