Nathan Claes


The advent of computer aided modeling has provided excellent opportunities for expanding the scope and accuracy of policy analysis. In order to take advantage of new technology however, traditional analytic tools must be made to function alongside computer modeling environments. Through the course of this thesis I discuss two primary foci. The first describes the development and implementation of a policy taxonomy specifically designed for use in computer aided policy analysis environments. Policy taxonomies acceptable for use in traditional theoretical environments may not be adequate and so must be modified for use in the new information technology environment that modern computer modeling demands. I will present a taxonomy specifically designed for use in the context of computer aided policy analysis (CAPA) systems. The second focus discusses the use of scenario analysis methods in those same systems. Scenario analysis is traditionally a rhetorical exercise which requires new approaches in order to maximize effectiveness in computer modeling environments. I will present an analysis of traditional methods of scenario analysis along with a discussion of some of the limitations of those methods in computer aided environments. I will document some of the foreseeable challenges to the future of scenario analysis as well as presenting some possible evolutions of the method for use in CAPA environments.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Policy sciences--Data processing; Political planning--Data processing; Computer simulation

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