This research's objective was to apply the Bass Diffusion model to border security and illegal immigration. The Potential Actual Illegal Immigration Population (PAIIP) model was created using the Vensim software program to illustrate and simulate illegal border crossings and assess the impact of detention, deportation, and amnesty on the communication between potential and actual illegal immigrants. This systems modeling approach combined with a secondary analysis method was used for data collection and analysis. Results indicate that no single or combination of policies solves the problem of illegal immigration. This study's conclusions point out that the greater the quality of information communicated between actual illegal immigrants that reside in the United States and potential illegal immigrants that live outside of the United States increases the probability of illegal crossings. Policymakers should ensure that institutions and agencies work in unison at the local, state, and federal level to deter illegal immigration and provide national security.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Border security--United States--Mathematical models; Illegal aliens--Government policy--United States

Publication Date


Document Type


Department, Program, or Center

Department of Science Technology and Society/Public Policy (CLA)


Foltz, Franz


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